Question - Civil Unrest.

[Argo]

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on the chances of civil war breaking out in the USA bc of the outcome of this election? Could it happen? The intensity is palpable!

From the outside looking in - when you have to board up all your shop fronts and take other strict security measures during an election in anticipation of impending riots, surely it is time to take a look at how we are doing in general! I understand fury, volatility and passion - we see it in the middle ease all the time - The USA has had civil war before - could it happen again now?

I also think while there is so much strife internally, it could maybe leave the US vulnerable to outside attacks?
Why or why not could this happen?
If it did, how would it look?
What would be the likely consequences....? Incl the global impact etc
Thanks.

[Haron]

In my opinion, USA is already under "outside attack". It seems like the nation is growing more divided every month. More "tribal". People seem to clearly identify with their "group". People with similar opinions. And every argument supporting their views is considered valid and good, while any arguments supporting other views are "fake news".

And this, I believe, is something foreign states have worked to further. Sure, it might have happened to some degree anyway, but foreign professional trolls have sped up and strengthened this division.

So now the nation consists of groups looking at other groups with contempt. It's an increased accept to use violence to further a political agenda (according to recent polls). And people do not believe in facts or objective truths any more, but only what they are told by "their" people. Most people own a gun - or more. And they are "standing back and standing by". So what will happen when one side wins, and the other side claims it's because of fraud? Russia and China are the ones benefitting from this.

"A house divided on itself cannot stand".

[DezNutz]

Unlikely to result in a civil war.

The only way CW2 breaks out is if Biden wins and the left starts attacking and going after those that supported (voted for) Trump.

If Trump wins reelections, there may be some civil unrest but it will be squashed quickly. Insurrection Act of 1807.

[Leo the Conqueror]

The chances of a civil war are very slim. There are a few reasons that I can see this happening, though:

1. Like Dez said if Biden wins and then democrats go after Trump voters

2. If Trump wins and Republicans go after Biden supporters

3. Biden wins but Trump refuses to leave office (presidential fist fight )

4. Trump wins but Biden tries to take office

5. Obstruction of justice of some sort is committed by one or multiple parties and this is raised to a violent level of conflict

Of course all of these could happen without a civil war starting.

Still think the new president should have to fight the incumbent to take office

[Haron]

I do not think there will be a civil war. However, I think the chances of civil unrest in some form is far higher than should be expected in a civilization nation after an election.

[Leo the Conqueror]

Ouch Haron just roasted the US

[Argo]

Ok..perhaps 'war' was a bit strong. Civil unrest. There has been a great deal of it. Its not new but it does appear to be growing and you said Haron, I agree, it does seem to be becoming more 'tribal'.( Makes me start to wonder about our evolution since 'tribes' have been cultured out a great deal so perhaps we cannot help but revert to our natural penchant for 'likeness and fitting in'.) Many tribes many wars. So perhaps thats more in line with my question -

@Dez

The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion.
Originally published: 3 March 1807
Enacted by: the 9th United States Congress
Statutes at Large: 2 Stat. 443
Effective: March 3, 1807

I see. Lol
In such a case where military are employed internally, does that not also make US more vulnerable to outside attacks? So if another country wanted to manipulate war, this would be quite a strategy. As Haron pointed out - A nation divided.."

@Mustache - I, too would like to see fisticuffs between those two...lol

[DezNutz]

Ok..perhaps 'war' was a bit strong. Civil unrest. There has been a great deal of it. Its not new but it does appear to be growing and you said Haron, I agree, it does seem to be becoming more 'tribal'.( Makes me start to wonder about our evolution since 'tribes' have been cultured out a great deal so perhaps we cannot help but revert to our natural penchant for 'likeness and fitting in'.) Many tribes many wars. So perhaps thats more in line with my question -

@Dez

The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion.
Originally published: 3 March 1807
Enacted by: the 9th United States Congress
Statutes at Large: 2 Stat. 443
Effective: March 3, 1807

I see. Lol
In such a case where military are employed internally, does that not also make US more vulnerable to outside attacks? So if another country wanted to manipulate war, this would be quite a strategy. As Haron pointed out - A nation divided.."

@Mustache - I, too would like to see fisticuffs between those two...lol

It isn't that uncommon for the Nation Guard to be called up (Governors do it during state emergencies) and has nothing to do with America's military defensive stance or might. The last time the act was used was during the 1950s during the desegregation of schools by President Eisenhower.

[Most Lee Harmless]

I think the biggest trigger event for future civil unrest in the USA will be Trump refusing to stand down after a narrow election loss.
The ground has already been prepared for such a refusal with the alleged 'Enormous Postal Fraud' and similar 'threats to democracy' : amusing to watch both candidates vote early though.. hope some-one verified it was only once!

I am looking forward to see a very rare example of a coup d'etat undertaken by a incumbent president. The Republican senate has already shown it will go along with any BS to keep their boy in power, a freshly-packed Supreme Court, yep... this could be almost as convoluted and bloody as Syria.. but maybe Trumpolini should not expect any help from the Kurds...

As for 'foreign influence' : I should bloody think so or someone aint doing their job. Not as if the USA has clean hands on that front either.

[Argo]

"For example, before a hurricane, the National Guard will move supplies, sandbag flood-prone areas, help evacuate locals and control traffic.

But their history of providing support to local police during civil unrest has been sometimes controversial.

Their track record during protests "has been abysmal", according to Tom Nolan, an associate professor in criminal justice at Boston University.

"They [the National Guard] have no experience and no training in going into situations in urban areas and confronting large numbers at protests," he said.

In some cases, states have urged local residents not to direct their anger at the National Guard."

Well, that's not very encouraging! 450K of 'abysmally prepared' guards? Lol
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-02/ ... nationwide.