Gold bar market discussion

[Vane]

Competitors and supply are directly related.

Yes, our problem lies in over supply right now. The solution to that is creating more demand, not making it easier for players to get into the production business...

If and when a new demand is created for bars, that solves our problem of over stock and goldsmiths can make a profit again... but if we make it easier to get into the trade we have just created a scenario were the supply far exceeds the demand.

Goldsmiths are fine as is.. demand needs to improve is all.

[Mugiwara]

I agree, but it isn't simply just over saturation of competitors, it is over saturation of product. The quantity of competitors is irrelevant as long as the demand exceeds the supply. We don't currently have that, we are slowly approaching the point were profits will be non-existent even for max level goldsmiths due to lack of demand. A remember atleast 6 months ago, that goldbar quantities in ports were around 50-60k, now they are double that. That is a massive over supply. The only way to fix it is increase the demand for goldbars, as you can't really decrease the number of goldsmiths.

Totally agree. First we need more gold bar usages. if you have to spend gold bars more frequently(not for techs or buildings they are one time event) then we can talk about increasing supply aswell. im not against making goldsmith more appealing but at present it will be dead investment. even making it profitable for level 1 also double edge sword for owner. when you lost your gold bar needs and with too much supply most probably you wont run your gold bar produce for months. Thats why first need to find demands:)


Mugiwara...

[DezNutz]

Yes Vane they are related, but as I said, as long as the demand exceeds supply, the number of competitors shouldn't matter, if a player has the income to build a smith, that is on them. I guess I should have stated that I like goldsmiths as they are. The cost factor is a major limitation to having one, but I don't think we should limit players from getting them nor should we make it so all levels of goldsmiths are profitable no matter the supply levels. Lower levels of goldsmiths should be more profitable, but that should come from natural supply and demand.

[Shadowood]

There are some nice ideas above and with some new players growing, you can see some spikes in some markets where (I am assuming) a hideout or 2 is being upgraded. We all agree that there needs to more "Demand" for gold bars. But what also needs to happen is make gold bars "Move" again. The system (for a gold smith) is built around Transporting bars. So how do we create Demand for bars and make them Ship again.

VUDU has been discussing this a little bit recently and I hope the boys will chime in as they are smarter then me.

1. Gold Bars for High Influence Gains - It was suggested that, what if one could "transport" gold bars from one port to a port they are wanting to build influence in. Gold Bars would give XX% more influence then using gold coin. This system could aid some in fortifying a port or assist in a port take over. Again, bars can't be bought and consumed in same port, they must be brought in on ships

2. Port Buildings - These have been discussed and we are hopeful to see them in Version 1.9 -2.1 (soon). These buildings should create demand for players and nations building them. I don't see this creating a ton of movement as bars could be bought and consumed in same port, but its demand. A gold trader would recognized a port GB value going up and move bars there to sell.

3. Forts - DezNuts has a great idea about Nation Forts for Port Controlling Nations. These forts should take a decent amount of gold bars to build and then repair after attacks (kind of falls under Port Building)

4. Wars and Blockades - I am not 100% up to speed on this item, but I bet Haron can find a way to include Gold Bars into this idea, if it isn't already.

5. Nation Treasury Storage (Fort Knox) - It was discussed in VUDU about being able to store Gold Bars in a nation treasury to aid in the contruction of Port buildings, Forts, aid with Wars Blockages. Gold Bars would need to be transported by ship to be deposited. Cannot buy and consume in a certain port.

6. Monuments - A new feature that goes along with Nation Storage of Gold Bars. Nations can use Gold Bars to build monuments that will add certain Nation Specific bonuses. TBD. (Reduction in Black Death, Increase in Transport Immigrants , When trading among your own ports you get further bonuses, Influence buff for building but also reduction in Conspiracy, ETC....)

7. Ship Building - I believe it is confirmed that all ships will have a small gold bar cost. This will help create a small demand.

8. Merchant Flagship - It was common back in the 1600-1700 when nations were expanding to the "new world" large Flagships would set sail loaded with Million/Billion in gold to aid in set up new colonies. With Pirate Flagship coming soon, why not have a Merchant Flagship as well. This (1) ship would have its own set of bonuses. Gold Bar bonus' perhaps, 500 Cargo space by itself. (Charles Vane wrote: "At market reset, each port calculates it's lowest resource. Any resource of that type brought in over the next few days could increase influence by a certain percentage on sale, (much like fame gain)".

Just a few ideas, but yes there needs to be more Demand, but specifically, GOLD BARS need to be SHIPPING again.

[Bmw]

no real need to change production there only needs to be more consumption.

[Captain Jack]

We have been trying to figure a good way to go a step forward on this.

It is clear that we can not use any of the existing features. The build up influence for example, as it has been brought up. We need new ways.

See how it flows; the game needs gold coins sinkers. One of the gold coins sinkers is influence. But so are Gold Bars. In case you have not realized it, Gold bars are one of the greatest gold sinkers in the game.

Gold sinkers are very important. Especially now that WAR is not burning as much gold as before.
Influence is a great sinker; adding gold bars will not change much. In fact, it will end up in sinking less gold coin than now.

We do not want to rush but it is clear that this is what the games needs mostly right now; it has been our main focus lately. We need a worthy concept for this and truth is that we have some very interesting ideas.

Btw, for those unaware, a lvl 20 Goldsmith can produce Gold Bars as low as 1509 a piece.
The worst price right now is 1,893 GC. With Duke + Indian Company Cards (English/Spanish/Dutch) it can get up to 1978 or 2.35M a day (or 3.73M at full speed)

Not really bad I believe.
Sure you may be able to pull of more with another type of investment but the choice is yours as different investments also result to different gameplay/risks.

So, it must be clear that if we want to increase Gold Bars consumption, it is not really for Goldsmiths. It is for other reasons.

[Shadowood]

Thanks for keep it top of mind CJ. Any new additions to the game I am sure will help in gold bar consumption and trade of it.

And for those young bucks looking to invest in Gold Smith. $2.35 million per day sounds good. But consider the almost $2 billion it takes to max. That is a return on investment in 2 1/2 years at current rate. This will change as price of bars go up, but consider this before diving in.

There are other benefits of a Gold Smith. Storage for one is great.

Warehouse Tycoon in my mind is a great investment, especially for those party people. Or Piracy for those who like to attack.
Just my two cents.

[Most Lee Harmless]

I think it is misleading to present such profit figures : they only apply in some notional perfect world of maximum production and no skirmish losses or interruptions to production : they dont account for the cost and upkeep of the trade fleets required to ship wage stocks either. If I produce the maximum 480 bars per hour, I need to ship 480 bars per hour : I need to import about 1250 crates of each wage stock per hour : shipping 480 bars per hour requires 2xLMM fleets, but that's cruising for a skirmishing bruising... so, in fact, I need 3 to 4 capital fleets able to defend the cargo to ship that amount : 6x LMM fleets to run in wages stocks : all that build and upkeep cost counts against my profit margin : and, of course, IF I ship that amount to a port, it depresses that ports prices very fast and I lose more margin.
What is more realistic is to produce the profit forecast for a medium-size smith running at medium production rate : and that profit dont happen at all currently.

[Stan Rogers]

Btw, for those unaware, a lvl 20 Goldsmith can produce Gold Bars as low as 1509 a piece.

It should be pointed out that to manufacture a GB for 1509 gc each, The total production capability of the GS must be severely curtailed or the price is going to be closer to 1587 gc each.

[sXs]

Thanks for keep it top of mind CJ. Any new additions to the game I am sure will help in gold bar consumption and trade of it.

And for those young bucks looking to invest in Gold Smith. $2.35 million per day sounds good. But consider the almost $2 billion it takes to max. That is a return on investment in 2 1/2 years at current rate. This will change as price of bars go up, but consider this before diving in.

There are other benefits of a Gold Smith. Storage for one is great.

Warehouse Tycoon in my mind is a great investment, especially for those party people. Or Piracy for those who like to attack.
Just my two cents.

At my current level adding 50 fleets/ 250 ships/officers would cost approx 750 mill. In a regular trade route they would generate the 1 billion cost of the level 20 GS. Party trading they would generate 3.25 billion. It seems to me that would be a more profitable way to go. that is per year. X 2.5

But my math could be wrong i guess.