Gold bar market discussion

[Most Lee Harmless]

With all the fuss and fun around recent events perhaps a worrying development may have slipped by : currently, not one single port is paying more than 1950 for a gold bar : the average port buying price has fallen below 1900 per bar : apart from a few small price spikes, overall, the gold bar market is pretty stagnant : we have more supply than demand, or not enough demand, depending on your viewpoint.

In practical terms, this means the owner of a level 14 Goldsmith will lose money with every bar they sell : the owner of a level 15 GS might turn a very small margin if they can ship to one of the few ports at the top of the market locally. Owners of GS at level 16 and above are better off, assuming no losses get taken while shipping for each loss will now take longer, and more shipments, to cover.

Well, cheap GB is nice for most of the player base but could only be short-lived if the makers cant see the hope of a better return on the horizon : my own GS spends days not even running now as I reach stock-pile limits : stocking in my warehouses is now threatened by OLOD power being extended to cover GB's : easier to switch it off and I'm sure other smiths have or are reaching the same conclusion.

C'est la vie, you may say, thats the business risk you freely took. I'd agree, except we were told more uses for GB's would create a demand for them : these uses aint really showed up : it's taken several 'tweaks' to GB price formula's to keep it going this long : tech research helped, but thats a one-off demand, once done, the player need never buy another GB again for it. We need an ongoing demand for GB in several areas of play to justify any level of further investment in Goldsmiths.

On a longer term view, we return to a question I have repeatedly asked before : why will newer player invest in Goldsmiths if it takes a billion and a half investment just to break even? Not repay the investment, just to not lose coin on each sale!

Is there something structurally wrong with how GS are designed? Is the GB making cost formula too linear? Is there too big a jump needed to get from losses to profitable levels. Making costs start at around 3k per bar for level1 then drop by 75gc per bar for each level until level20 gives you a 1500gc making cost ( plus wages, dependent on workforce numbers) : is the starting cost too high? Could we start with a lower cost and have smaller cost reduction for each level?

Just some thoughts.

[Captain Jack]

I think that we should reach a point where at least half the trading fleets will be filled with gold bars. This will combo with Skirmish and this is our real objective for a long time.

Before this can happen, we need to find ways to spend these gold bars that will include fleet travel, even for Goldsmiths.

[PhoenixKnight]

I suggest that either banks are able to produce gold coins based on gold bars or we create a jeweler that can change gold bars to jewelry and gc

[Most Lee Harmless]

I think that we should reach a point where at least half the trading fleets will be filled with gold bars. This will combo with Skirmish and this is our real objective for a long time.

Before this can happen, we need to find ways to spend these gold bars that will include fleet travel, even for Goldsmiths.

Goldsmiths cant sell their current production without shipping it already : the point being made is that current market means shipping it for sale is a loss-maker unless you have better than level 16 GS : I dont see where the demand is, or will be, to encourage low-mid GS to do that when they are already losing money on the deal, never mind losing shipments to skirmish too.

GS at level16+ owners can survive lower prices in the market as they have already jumped to the lowest cost making levels : but who will join them? Who can afford the investment over the best part of a year just feeding in coin, turns, credits and resources to get to level16 and join the party? Thus my thought on the idea of a lower initial making cost with smaller 'jumps' for each new level, so that newer players can see the point of investing their precious resources and can see an attainable break-even point. I can even see an argument for 'front-loading' the cost making cuts to lower levels, then reducing them as levels are gained : i.e perhaps start at a 100gc reduction and that drops each level to a 25gc cut at level 20 : combined with a lower making cost start point at level one but keeping the same end cost at level20 might have benefits too.

BTW : If you think a GS should accept having fleets skirmished and the consequent GB loss, then it becomes even more vital that they make a decent profit on those that get through : It may be 'good for the game' but GS owners aint social workers, or charity outfits : funding the ambitions of pirates from my pocket is not 'good for my game' ; why bother building anything, log-on, send some coin to Tom Lowe, log off... that would be the wise business choice in such circumstance.

[Mugiwara]

Danik Sir huge +1 for your concerns. When i started to play i seek for different kind of profit ways to make an efficient plan for 1-2 years. I was really interested to build a goldsmith and based on my calculations i could finish it in a year.

After that i made some deeply calculations about how much i will get when i can fully run my goldsmith. And i released with cost of resource carrying to goldsmith(you can use that ships for party cards and can get a lot of golds so using them for stock also minus for total profit) you will get max 3m daily profit. and thats if you can sell each of them for 2050-2100gc value. which means even more than 2 years. I questioned my idea why should i spent a year to get my money back in roughly in another two years? Who would like to invest his efforts to build a goldsmith to be able to make profit after 3 years?

I cant deny goldmisth not for profit. its for fame and sign of wealth. I found warehouse tycoon will give me more than goldsmith can offer. with tons of less investments and in less time. Also buying captains another huge way to make profit. Thats why i quit to think about building goldsmith. Its pointless for a 1-2 year of player if you dont want to show it as a sign of wealth or you planning to keep really low amount of ships and want to make nice profit with that ships.

A system to make profit even at low levels would encourage more. at present as Danik said 15 level goldsmith not enough for profit. which is equal to 1.2b total investments. Even at level 16 its just for make your gold bar costs less for hideout, not worth to risk them while trying to sell.


Mugiwara...

[Maha]

recently i read about including gb's in all shipbuilding.

although i as a consumer rejoice in low gb prices. i recognize that Danik has a point here.
to create a gb market it's adjusting 'what is' like the supplies needed to build a ship or create new markets like the witch hut (oops never said that word) or jewerly.

the problem is that our game is nicely balanced. all change run the risk to upset that balance.

CJ wants a massive shipping of GB's. one way to do that is to alter the way our gc in hand and banking is done. at the present it is global, make it localized and players need to ship wealth to cover gc protection for their fleets in the ports they trade in. bank levels add extra port branches so that banks can store gc in those ports. players can have gc cover in one port but not in another port. a global raid will has less impact because fleets are protected locally, so raiding 20 fleets in Psaral won't endanger a SOL fleet in Seaglory.
the only way to move wealth between ports is to move GB's.

[Most Lee Harmless]

recently i read about including gb's in all shipbuilding.

although i as a consumer rejoice in low gb prices. i recognize that Danik has a point here.
to create a gb market it's adjusting 'what is' like the supplies needed to build a ship or create new markets like the witch hut (oops never said that word) or jewerly.

the problem is that our game is nicely balanced. all change run the risk to upset that balance.

CJ wants a massive shipping of GB's. one way to do that is to alter the way our gc in hand and banking is done. at the present it is global, make it localized and players need to ship wealth to cover gc protection for their fleets in the ports they trade in. bank levels add extra port branches so that banks can store gc in those ports. players can have gc cover in one port but not in another port. a global raid will has less impact because fleets are protected locally, so raiding 20 fleets in Psaral won't endanger a SOL fleet in Seaglory.
the only way to move wealth between ports is to move GB's.

Excellent thoughts, Maha : such a system would also rejuvenate Banks : combined with GB storage in Banks, then the shipping of GB's by banks themselves becomes a key element : I can see many problems created for raiders and traders alike, ensuring their fleets are 'covered' locally, particularily if Banks are limited by their size in how much port coverage they can provide.

[Mugiwara]

I think that we should reach a point where at least half the trading fleets will be filled with gold bars. This will combo with Skirmish and this is our real objective for a long time.

Before this can happen, we need to find ways to spend these gold bars that will include fleet travel, even for Goldsmiths.

Raising india cards gold bar sale bonus will help but it may end up with trading same gold bars between ports its not a real demand just a way to carry more gold bars.

For raise demands as maha said we have lots of suggestions for that. one made by you about ship costs to include gold bars. Also Danik suggested a gold bar storage in banks. which will raise the transactions i believe. Also adding a gold bar requirements for port buildings. Also if suggestions like forts, port blockades will ever get implemented make their upkeep costs gold bar. It will be long term demand not like techs and buildings.


Mugiwara...

[Lefty]

BTW : If you think a GS should accept having fleets skirmished and the consequent GB loss, then it becomes even more vital that they make a decent profit on those that get through : It may be 'good for the game' but GS owners aint social workers, or charity outfits : funding the ambitions of pirates from my pocket is not 'good for my game' ; why bother building anything, log-on, send some coin to Tom Lowe, log off... that would be the wise business choice in such circumstance.

HEAR HEAR!!
While I recognize that this simple solution might not be accepted.
I can close my eyes and enjoy the thought for a bit.

[Shadowood]

There are some nice ideas above and with some new players growing, you can see some spikes in some markets where (I am assuming) a hideout or 2 is being upgraded. We all agree that there needs to more "Demand" for gold bars. But what also needs to happen is make gold bars "Move" again. The system (for a gold smith) is built around Transporting bars. So how do we create Demand for bars and make them Ship again.

VUDU has been discussing this a little bit recently and I hope the boys will chime in as they are smarter then me.

1. Gold Bars for High Influence Gains - It was suggested that, what if one could "transport" gold bars from one port to a port they are wanting to build influence in. Gold Bars would give XX% more influence then using gold coin. This system could aid some in fortifying a port or assist in a port take over. Again, bars can't be bought and consumed in same port, they must be brought in on ships

2. Port Buildings - These have been discussed and we are hopeful to see them in Version 1.9 -2.1 (soon). These buildings should create demand for players and nations building them. I don't see this creating a ton of movement as bars could be bought and consumed in same port, but its demand. A gold trader would recognized a port GB value going up and move bars there to sell.

3. Forts - DezNuts has a great idea about Nation Forts for Port Controlling Nations. These forts should take a decent amount of gold bars to build and then repair after attacks (kind of falls under Port Building)

4. Wars and Blockades - I am not 100% up to speed on this item, but I bet Haron can find a way to include Gold Bars into this idea, if it isn't already.

5. Nation Treasury Storage (Fort Knox) - It was discussed in VUDU about being able to store Gold Bars in a nation treasury to aid in the contruction of Port buildings, Forts, aid with Wars Blockages. Gold Bars would need to be transported by ship to be deposited. Cannot buy and consume in a certain port.

6. Monuments - A new feature that goes along with Nation Storage of Gold Bars. Nations can use Gold Bars to build monuments that will add certain Nation Specific bonuses. TBD. (Reduction in Black Death, Increase in Transport Immigrants , When trading among your own ports you get further bonuses, Influence buff for building but also reduction in Conspiracy, ETC....)

7. Ship Building - I believe it is confirmed that all ships will have a small gold bar cost. This will help create a small demand.

8. Merchant Flagship - It was common back in the 1600-1700 when nations were expanding to the "new world" large Flagships would set sail loaded with Million/Billion in gold to aid in set up new colonies. With Pirate Flagship coming soon, why not have a Merchant Flagship as well. This (1) ship would have its own set of bonuses. Gold Bar bonus' perhaps, 500 Cargo space by itself. (Charles Vane wrote: "At market reset, each port calculates it's lowest resource. Any resource of that type brought in over the next few days could increase influence by a certain percentage on sale, (much like fame gain)".

Just a few ideas, but yes there needs to be more Demand, but specifically, GOLD BARS need to be SHIPPING again.