TRUMP 2020!

[Mack]

Back we go to expected mortality rate : that average includes all those obese, diabetic,,chain-smoking folk. They die at a constant rate already. What we are seeing now is 300,000 more deaths than would be expected.
So, if it aint covid causing those 300,000 EXTRA deaths... then what is?

As an aside : covid is somewhat treatable IF you have the hospital capacity and staff and correct equipment. That alone will reduce the death rate... until you exceed that capacity. Then the death rate will increase exponentially. I will wager that when a hospital reaches capacity the first step taken is to triage incoming patients. You save the ones most likely to respond not tie up beds with long-term cases. That sounds harsh but that is what triage is. Same applies in field hospitals, fix the ones you can fix most of, not leave ten of them to die while you spend ten hours saving one with multiple injuries.

I'll also wager that has happened already. Simple choice really : give the last bed to a relatively healthy individual likely to recover or to the obese, chain-smoking pensioner with a heart condition and bad lungs? Go look at interviews with Intensive Care staff.. they tell it as it is.

in 2018, a total of 2,839,205 In 2012, a total of 2,543,279 deaths

what I'm noticing is there is no steady number it jumps up and down dramatically Through The Years every year this does not seem abnormal to me this year is a little on the high side but not dramatically High


and now its at 2.3 mil soo. they expect another 600 or 700 thousand to die thats wjat they should say not a 300000 extra deaths this year it ain't true yet

the total death count in the usa total death count nkt covid i know thats all you wanna see is high covid numbers but im sorry im talking total death count so you will understand they are trying to fool you

[Lachlan]

Back we go to expected mortality rate : that average includes all those obese, diabetic,,chain-smoking folk. They die at a constant rate already. What we are seeing now is 300,000 more deaths than would be expected.
So, if it aint covid causing those 300,000 EXTRA deaths... then what is?

As an aside : covid is somewhat treatable IF you have the hospital capacity and staff and correct equipment. That alone will reduce the death rate... until you exceed that capacity. Then the death rate will increase exponentially. I will wager that when a hospital reaches capacity the first step taken is to triage incoming patients. You save the ones most likely to respond not tie up beds with long-term cases. That sounds harsh but that is what triage is. Same applies in field hospitals, fix the ones you can fix most of, not leave ten of them to die while you spend ten hours saving one with multiple injuries.

I'll also wager that has happened already. Simple choice really : give the last bed to a relatively healthy individual likely to recover or to the obese, chain-smoking pensioner with a heart condition and bad lungs? Go look at interviews with Intensive Care staff.. they tell it as it is.

in 2018, a total of 2,839,205 In 2012, a total of 2,543,279 deaths

what I'm noticing is there is no steady number it jumps up and down dramatically Through The Years every year this does not seem abnormal to me this year is a little on the high side but not dramatically High


and now its at 2.3 mil soo. they expect another 600 or 700 thousand to die thats wjat they should say not a 300000 extra deaths this year it ain't true yet

the total death count in the usa total death count nkt covid i know thats all you wanna see is high covid numbers but im sorry im talking total death count so you will understand they are trying to fool you

oh is this total death count of every type of death?

[Mack]

yes overall deaths in usa...

2018 had 2,839,205 so we still need 500k to even break even, so to reach their expected numbers we need 800k

do the math, how long did it take us to get to 2.3mil this year already?

[Most Lee Harmless]

You are assuming the 2018 figure is some sort of benchmark that applies to every year. Expected mortality is not a fixed figure. It is not based on a benchmark figure that applies every year regardless. It changes annually because the factors that affect it change also, due to a number of reasons. An aging population more susceptable to age-related causes of death. A population becoming more obese giving more deaths related to issues arising from that. A cessation in smoking habits gives a steady drop in deaths attributable to that influence. A tailing away of deaths caused by asbestos, reduced deaths from industrial causes, coal mining, etc. An increase in opiod-related deaths. It's not a constant so comparing headline figures from one year to the next is meaningless in establishing WHY people are dying in any particular number.

An excess in expected mortality rate.. not absolute mortality rate, indicates a cause is at work that has not been factored in. Next year it will be because the factor is now known to be a cause.

It is not some new-fangled liberal science : insurance companies have used similar data and calculations for decades in establishing their actuarial tables which govern their costs and likely payouts.

[Mack]

no that aint the actual average, you assume im assuming i have looked at many years data... this is just to make a point they should have said 300k more than the average at this point..

you do know how averages work right? you know there are high sides and low sides on a normal basis right?

[Most Lee Harmless]

You havent said what figures you are quoting save to give a date. You do not say if they are an average, a high, a low, expected rate, achieved rate : I've repeatedly asked you to clarify but you have not but you insist on drawing conclusions regardless.

They are an average? An average of what? Over what period? Why are those figures you quote a benchmark? A benchmark of what?

So, we are left with nought else to do but make assumptions as to what you are trying to illustrate for us with those figures.

What we do know is that you think they have nothing to do with covid because, you know, 'nobody famous has died of it' and nobody you know has caught it.

[Haron]

no that aint the actual average, you assume im assuming i have looked at many years data... this is just to make a point they should have said 300k more than the average at this point..

you do know how averages work right? you know there are high sides and low sides on a normal basis right?

You know how standard deviations work, right? Especially on a large population? And what a projection means? Or maybe I should start with something more basic: Do you understand maths at all?

[Most Lee Harmless]

I think its nought to do with maths.

Science : facts dictate theories.

Politics : theories dictate facts.

[Mack]

You havent said what figures you are quoting save to give a date. You do not say if they are an average, a high, a low, expected rate, achieved rate : I've repeatedly asked you to clarify but you have not but you insist on drawing conclusions regardless.

They are an average? An average of what? Over what period? Why are those figures you quote a benchmark? A benchmark of what?

So, we are left with nought else to do but make assumptions as to what you are trying to illustrate for us with those figures.

What we do know is that you think they have nothing to do with covid because, you know, 'nobody famous has died of it' and nobody you know has caught it.

i have made clear what i was posting ...

no that aint the actual average, you assume im assuming i have looked at many years data... this is just to make a point they should have said 300k more than the average at this point..

you do know how averages work right? you know there are high sides and low sides on a normal basis right?

You know how standard deviations work, right? Especially on a large population? And what a projection means? Or maybe I should start with something more basic: Do you understand maths at all?

i can see the numbers, can you?

[Zephore]