TRUMP 2020!

[Dmanwuzhere]

flu what flu its been cured i thought you knew

[xxTaaaaylorxx]

You still don't get it, do you?

Deaths come AFTER infections. Days after. Weeks after. Exactly how long after, varies. That means death rates are "smoothed", and any increase or decrease in deaths will come after an increase or a decrease in inflations.

So if infection rates are rising now, it means that death rates will take longer before dropping to a normal level, or they may even increase further in a week or three, at least if infection rates continue to rise.

My grahs show infection rates varying as a sinus curve, for simplicity. That's the blue line. The other line is death rates, assuming that death occurs 0-29 days after infection, with all delays being equally probable.

By day 7 you can normally determine who will survive and who will not.
Lymphocyte counts are high in survivors and increase after day 7.
D-dimer, High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, serum ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, and IL-6 levels are all clearly elevated in non-survivors in approximately 2 weeks.
The median amount of days it takes from noticed symptoms of Covid-19 to death is 18.5 days with 22 days being the median for Covid 19 survivors to be released.

[Stan Rogers]

By day 7 you can normally determine who will survive and who will not.
Lymphocyte counts are high in survivors and increase after day 7.
D-dimer, High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, serum ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, and IL-6 levels are all clearly elevated in non-survivors in approximately 2 weeks.
The median amount of days it takes from noticed symptoms of Covid-19 to death is 18.5 days with 22 days being the median for Covid 19 survivors to be released.

Very good !
As I understand, people can display symptoms anytime up to 14 days? or not at all ? Is a 14 day quarantine necessary or would 10 days work ?
Regular cold corona infection last about 10 days with the first 3-4 and the last 3-4 days being infectious. As I understand it, there is a period when the virus is rolling full bore and is quite satisfied with its host and not transmittable.
Do we know how the covid 19 works?
Then there are the carriers that are not even aware they have the virus which is the scary part of the whole pandemic. Most reasonable people will isolate themselves if they suspect they are infected but those who are carriers ??..Scary !

[The Lamb]

You still don't get it, do you?

My grahs show infection rates varying as a sinus curve, for simplicity. That's the blue line. The other line is death rates, assuming that death occurs 0-29 days after infection, with all delays being equally probable.

Ohhhhh....your looking at a model and saying how the model says it is supposed to be. Well your argument makes sense now!

Im looking at the actual data from the last 11 months and the actual deaths reported per day by the CDC. Thats why we are disconnecting, your model is just out of date.

Ok so the models are what said we would have 2.2 million deaths in the US the first year in the US. I would agree with you that normally you can take a model and say if a known virus has a death rate of (x)% then we can expect "this amount" of deaths. Problem is since we didnt know what this virus would actually do the modleing we used was wrong and people still have yet to change the models. Most viruses dont discriminate so the models work, this virus does so the standard models dont work.

I for one am very happy to see that so far, in the US, while the infection rate has been increasing, the CDC reported deaths per day have not increased the past 8 months.

[Haron]

The virus discriminates. I would think that was the case for most virus, but I could be wrong. Anyway, you are right that this is a factor. If, for some reason, the increase in infected only comes in certain resilient age groups, the death rates would be lower than if infections were spread equally across all age groups. And to some extent this may actually be the case now, as young adults generally are more careless than elder people. And to the extent that this is the case, I would agree that it is good news; not so many people in risk groups get infected. There is a substantial risk that even if the increase in infection starts in this age group, though, it will spread from those to others. And it anyway means that the risk of being infected increases for everyone.

As for my graph, that was not based on any specific model I've read about. It was simply to illustrate why death rates and numbers of infections are not correlated. The deaths today depend on how many was infected every day for the last month or so. So if the numbers of infected is increasing now, but was decreasing for around a month ago, then the death rates could be relatively constant. However, if the number of infected continues to increase, at one point the death rates will increase as well.

The virus may indeed mutate into a less lethal variant with time. That may be good news, however, that new mutation will likely also be more contagious. So hard to tell.

A lot of the increase in the number of infections during the last period, is because more are being tested. During the summer, that was probably an important factor. However, lately the number of infections are increasing faster. What looks like exponential growth. And the number of tested is more constant these days. So this last surge of infected is probably a real, and relatively recent, increase. And the death rate has not yet increased much, since this is recent. Few of the newly infected have died yet, and there was an underlying decrease due to the decrease in infections one or two months ago.

You have to look at the death rates and infection rate and see how one follows the other. The exact way to model this is hard. You'd need to know not only the mean or median time it takes from infection to death, but the actual probability distribution. Also, the number of reported new infections depends on several factors, like how many tests are conducted. So this number is uncertain, unfortunately.

As for the 20%, I believe that was in the period after the first surge in USA until early October. The part of the year before this was not included. Until that first surge, approximately as many died this year as an average year. But after the first Corona surge, about 20% more than usual have died. It is natural to attribute this to direct and indirect effect of Corona.

[Mack]

it looks to me like the death rates have been on the rise big time in the past 10 years really since the 80's

https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths

[Most Lee Harmless]

it looks to me like the death rates have been on the rise big time in the past 10 years really since the 80's

https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths

Did you actually read that page? The world population is aging. More people live longer but you know, they dont live forever. Fewer babies are being born. Thus it is somewhat inevitable that there will be an apparent climb in future death rates expressed in terms of an overall percentage of the population. That is no mystery.

But you still have not given a theory as to what is the cause of the current excess in expected mortality in the USA. You know, those 300,000 non-famous people who didn't die from covid. Any insights on that yet?

[Mack]

no fewer people would mean less deaths not more, see not only is the death rate on the rise the birth rate is in decline. its not like everyone was born all at the same time....

im resarching i just came across this felt it was relevant.

when was it Schumer and Pelosi got in there lol

[Most Lee Harmless]

Nope... fewer young people means the overall population gets skewed towards the elderly. Its Japans big problem and rapidly becoming China's too. Demographic changes like that dont happen overnight nor do the consequences unravel overnight. Consequences which are not just medical but also economic.

But you still have not rxplained the excess mortality figures for the USA this year. Surely you must have some theory given you know its not caused by covid?

[Meliva]

gotta say it only makes sense that death numbers go up as the population. There are more people living on earth now then anytime in human history-so of course more people=higher death numbers. We also need to remember that the baby boomers which were part of a massive population growth, are getting to the point where they are all elderly and likely to die sometime soon.

Also, Covid definitely helped boost that number. While it is true that most folks who do die from covid died due to also having other health issues, covid was the final nail in the coffin for some folks.