Effect of Assassins

[Haron]

The assassin cards has the following description:
"Target player randomly loses 1 Captain or 1 Admiral or 1 Merchant".

What is implied, but not explicitly written, is "with the same probability for each". However, this does not seem to be the case. Captain Jack, can you confirm whether or not the probability is supposed to be the same for each officer, or if this is some bug?

I definitely think the probability SHOULD be the same. And if it is not, then it should definitely be explained on the card. "Randomly" in this context implies "with the same probability". A 98% chance for merchants and 1% for each of the others would also constitute a random element, but the sentence used clearly implies that the probability is the same for all options.

More importantly, I think the probability SHOULD be the same. It's a rare card, after all, and only has use as a destructive card - and only has real effect when hitting a Captain. It should be the antithesis of a bribe card.

[sXs]

If I understand the mechanics correctly, it is simulated as a 100-sided dice with 1-33 as admiral, 34-66, as Merchant and 67-100 as captain. It is possible 10 consecutive casts could return 10 consecutive merchants and 0 captains.

[Grimrock Litless]

When it comes to 1/3, in percentages, there is a decimal in each or not they are not always equal, if you really think about it, in 1/3, there will always be a percentage that is higher than the other 2, 33.33333333334, while the others are smaller by a tiny bit, but if you random doing a pick a number out of 1, 2, 3. I think it is always the same chance.

Chance based system are not always reliable in games, this is why I hate games with rdn, they always make me want to burn the game because I couldn't get a legendary item even when the chance for it is 99%. Like Feniks says, tho it's almost impossible chance, you can still get 100 merchant murders out of 100 cast.

[Cutpurse]

i wonder what happens if there would not be merchants left. would the odds be 50-50 for remaining officers, your would you perhaps fail every third cast?

[Grimrock Litless]

i wonder what happens if there would not be merchants left. would the odds be 50-50 for remaining officers, your would you perhaps fail every third cast?

You can always try it on a newbie.

[Cutpurse]

i could if i had any. i posted in hope thyat someone would try that out. it is not of great importance anyhow, unless someone really wants to stock cards and take out 1k captains

[Grimrock Litless]

i could if i had any. i posted in hope thyat someone would try that out. it is not of great importance anyhow, unless someone really wants to stock cards and take out 1k captains

Just try it on a newbie, the ones with 25 fame that never go ups or down after 3 years, they have 1 of each. Don't need to stock up cards and take out 1k captains, unless if you are trying to start something. And from the looks of things, cutpurse, you are talking like you want someone to start something.

[DezNutz]

i could if i had any. i posted in hope thyat someone would try that out. it is not of great importance anyhow, unless someone really wants to stock cards and take out 1k captains

Just try it on a newbie, the ones with 25 fame that never go ups or down after 3 years, they have 1 of each. Don't need to stock up cards and take out 1k captains, unless if you are trying to start something. And from the looks of things, cutpurse, you are talking like you want someone to start something.

You would need to find an inactive that has spent over a 1000 turns and only has 1 of each officer just to test. I find that highly unlikely.

[Grimrock Litless]

i could if i had any. i posted in hope thyat someone would try that out. it is not of great importance anyhow, unless someone really wants to stock cards and take out 1k captains

Just try it on a newbie, the ones with 25 fame that never go ups or down after 3 years, they have 1 of each. Don't need to stock up cards and take out 1k captains, unless if you are trying to start something. And from the looks of things, cutpurse, you are talking like you want someone to start something.

You would need to find an inactive that has spent over a 1000 turns and only has 1 of each officer just to test. I find that highly unlikely.

Really? Because I already found one.

It seems that it doesn't produce a fail if the following officer does not exist, it just moves on to the others automatically.

[Haron]

The problem is that I have done a hypothesis test, with H0 being that the probabilities are equal. That hypothesis had to be discarded, in favour of H1: Merchants have a significantly higher probability than other officers to be assassinated.