Voodoo Chances/Luck

[Captain Jack]

First of all, we have taken time to check the code to ensure that everything is fine. After our check, we found out that everything was fine and no updates were issued.

Now that you know that we actually investigated, I will share the full story for future reference.

The game uses chances in quite many areas. Chances are used to imitate real conditions. We want to simulate the game as near as we can to real conditions. This is why most chances given in the game, unless stated otherwise, are all simulated.

What simulated means?
It means that every time, the game will roll a dice to decide on what will happen.

What chances mean?
Chances are our effort, as a development team, to push the simulation towards an expected event.

How stable results are?
Haron and Nelson said it all. First of all, it is down to luck. If you have terrible luck, nothing will work. If you have great luck, all will work. However, the more results you try/examine, the closer you will get to the chance given.

An example

The best way to test, are the Flip a Coin cards; everyone has a coin so you can test it right now, without using your cards. Flip a coin cards have 50% chance of success. You may cast 5 and get them all failed or all successful. Both results are acceptable and probable to happen. As a player, you will tend to observe the failed part - its normal.

If you try 100 casts though, the results should be in between 40-60 span (difference of 20 at most). 1-99 is impossible, 30-70 is pretty rare, 40-60 will be the most common result.

75% is pretty aggressive and every % added makes it even more aggressive (it matters most). That's something you can realize in your own by using a dice (a d100 one, this is the one we most commonly use). The way I realize it, the difference between 25% to 50% and 50% to 75% is not the same. Even if mathematically speaking, it is.

Battles

Battles produce more solid results due to improved design. The dice used there is better too.

Voodoo

Voodoo tend to produce less solid results mostly due to the lack of any rules interference. There are no caster and victim traits/rules that interfere. If there was, the results would be more driven and as a result more expected. This is something we can always improve in the future.

I will move this topic to general discussion and futurely, I might make a guide out of it.

[Ziggfried]

First of all, we have taken time to check the code to ensure that everything is fine. After our check, we found out that everything was fine and no updates were issued.

Now that you know that we actually investigated, I will share the full story for future reference.

The game uses chances in quite many areas. Chances are used to imitate real conditions. We want to simulate the game as near as we can to real conditions. This is why most chances given in the game, unless stated otherwise, are all simulated.

What simulated means?
It means that every time, the game will roll a dice to decide on what will happen.

What chances mean?
Chances are our effort, as a development team, to push the simulation towards an expected event.

How stable results are?
Haron and Nelson said it all. First of all, it is down to luck. If you have terrible luck, nothing will work. If you have great luck, all will work. However, the more results you try/examine, the closer you will get to the chance given.

An example

The best way to test, are the Flip a Coin cards; everyone has a coin so you can test it right now, without using your cards. Flip a coin cards have 50% chance of success. You may cast 5 and get them all failed or all successful. Both results are acceptable and probable to happen. As a player, you will tend to observe the failed part - its normal.

If you try 100 casts though, the results should be in between 40-60 span (difference of 20 at most). 1-99 is impossible, 30-70 is pretty rare, 40-60 will be the most common result.

75% is pretty aggressive and every % added makes it even more aggressive (it matters most). That's something you can realize in your own by using a dice (a d100 one, this is the one we most commonly use). The way I realize it, the difference between 25% to 50% and 50% to 75% is not the same. Even if mathematically speaking, it is.

Battles

Battles produce more solid results due to improved design. The dice used there is better too.

Voodoo

Voodoo tend to produce less solid results mostly due to the lack of any rules interference. There are no caster and victim traits/rules that interfere. If there was, the results would be more driven and as a result more expected. This is something we can always improve in the future.

I will move this topic to general discussion and futurely, I might make a guide out of it.

Yea mabe an academy tech: luck of the dice that could effect voodoo that has % chances and also ship stats when using master craftsman etc

[Haron]

Ah, Captain Jack, I LOVE random numbers and probability calculations! And thus, I have some questions regarding this, of course.

What do you mean that "chances are simulated"? Do you use a random number generator, or is it predetermined in some way? Will the results truly be indipendent of each other - for example, is the probability to fail a skirmish independent on whether or not your previous attempt succeeded? Do you use different random number generators for battles and voodoo? What does it mean that voodoo produces "less solid results"? Are the seeds for the random number generators based on server clock or local clock? Are all "dice" random numbers drawn from a uniform distribution, or do you also use other distribution functions (like the normal distribution or beta distribution)?

The "Attack Roll" is described as some number plus "luck". Is this "luck" a number drawn from a uniform distribution (a "die roll")?

[Ziggfried]

I think he is basically saying the game rolls a random number 1 threw 100 when casting a % card and there is no stack effect like 1 out of 5 cast etc it's all random. Like if you play WoW and roll the dice to see who wins the loot. And its just a simple code with only a % modifier that could mean 7.5% cause we don't know the value of the dice

[Captain Jack]

Ah, Captain Jack, I LOVE random numbers and probability calculations! And thus, I have some questions regarding this, of course.

What do you mean that "chances are simulated"? Do you use a random number generator, or is it predetermined in some way? Will the results truly be indipendent of each other - for example, is the probability to fail a skirmish independent on whether or not your previous attempt succeeded? Do you use different random number generators for battles and voodoo? What does it mean that voodoo produces "less solid results"? Are the seeds for the random number generators based on server clock or local clock? Are all "dice" random numbers drawn from a uniform distribution, or do you also use other distribution functions (like the normal distribution or beta distribution)?

The "Attack Roll" is described as some number plus "luck". Is this "luck" a number drawn from a uniform distribution (a "die roll")?

I better answer these one by one as it is better you all know in detail.

What do you mean that "chances are simulated"?
-I mean that there is a dice involved.

Do you use a random number generator, or is it predetermined in some way?
-As random as it gets

Will the results truly be independent of each other?
-Always independent. If not, it will be mentioned. For example, in Treasure hunt, if you fail a chance, then the system increases your chances for next attempt and this is displayed.

Do you use different random number generators for battles and voodoo?
-The generator is always the same function. However, we use different dices (d20, d100 the most common) for different cases. Battles are special because of the special rules (ie, if you roll 20, then you do not enter a chance check, you succeed).

What does it mean that voodoo produces "less solid results"?
-When you are solely dependable on the roll, then this is a less solid result. (ie Flip a Coin)

Are the seeds for the random number generators based on server clock or local clock?
-Clock plays no role. Do not waste time there. The script uses cpu clock frequency to produce the random number. That's impossible to predict.

Are all "dice" random numbers drawn from a uniform distribution, or do you also use other distribution functions (like the normal distribution or beta distribution)?
-I do not get this. It is as random as it gets.

[John jacob astor]

Are all "dice" random numbers drawn from a uniform distribution, or do you also use other distribution functions (like the normal distribution or beta distribution)?
-I do not get this. It is as random as it gets.

Yes, it would be a uniform distribution. each number has the same probability of getting selected.

[ChaIbaud]

You could always do a Chi square table to see if it is really up to chance

[Grimrock Litless]

Does this means, the more you fail the more you succeeds next time? (or the other way around)

[Haron]

Thank you for your answers, Captain Jack!

I'd still like to know more about what kind of random number generator you use (in my experience, the quality in such generators vary a LOT), but I guess that would be too technical.

At least I have a better understanding of some effects now. So every "luck" effect is a single die roll, hmmm....