Haron wrote:I agree, it's not risky. But does it actually work? I guess it partially depends on whether a ship can have negative points or not. Assuming the chance to get 3, 4 and 5 points is all 1/3 both when gaining and losing a level, this should take a very long time.
After gaining a level and losing it, you have the following probability distribution of gaining / losing points:
-2: 1/9
-1: 2/9
0: 3/9
1: 2/9
2: 1/9
This distribution is the same after the next level. For a total distribution after gaining two levels and losing two levels:
-4: 1/81
-3: 4/81
-2: 10/81
-1: 16/81
0: 19/81
1: 16/81
2: 10/81
3: 4/81
4: 1/81
And so on and so forth. So, under these assumptions, gaining or losing a lot of atts this way is not very probable. It is, of course, possible that the algorithms for attribute gaining/losing is different from what I have assumed - or that the random number generator is not entirely reliable.
The risk is the same as not having a cheap tail on your fleets. You don't put a SOTL as the last ship in your fleet, you put a cheap ship as the last ship because there is that chance you get attacked via skirmish or voodoo'd and you don't want a really expensive ship to get plundered with ease. To say it isn't risky, is asinine. If it is not risky, run all your fleets with no cheap tail.
Yes, statistically you have a potential gain of zero for using this method. Random chance is the only way to come out with a significant gain or loss. However, compared to the guaranteed rate of gain from a Master Craftsman, the comparative costs is potentially greater.
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