TRUMP 2020!

[Mack]

then why do them collage educated fellows project it to keep spreading apart?

and i said im researching, i could give a smart as answer if you want. but i want to know also

[Lachlan]

Nope... fewer young people means the overall population gets skewed towards the elderly. Its Japans big problem and rapidly becoming China's too. Demographic changes like that dont happen overnight nor do the consequences unravel overnight. Consequences which are not just medical but also economic.

But you still have not rxplained the excess mortality figures for the USA this year. Surely you must have some theory given you know its not caused by covid?

Actually I think it is happening in basically any country

[The Lamb]

So I finally got the CDC data charted... This is for the USA only, I dont have the time or drive to do the globe

Here is the Daily since it all began. This is why i say there is not positive correlation between new cases per day and death rate per day. Not even 3-4 weeks later. Its flat. Yey for us.



Here is the Total since it all began. This is why I question lockdowns but still support masks, hand sani etc...



Blue lines are positive cases and orange lines are deaths

[Stan Rogers]

The death rate will appear almost 'flat' due to the difference in scale of the two metrics.
That said, the death per 1000 infected should drop x amount because of new therapeutics and methods of treatment.

Regardless although there has been improvements in treatments and people give up on the fish tank cleaner and clorox has got to help.
The timeless and proven expression of "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" is certainly apt in this case.
Now ICU's are again filling up to capacity and refrigerated trucks park outside morgue's really tells the full story in very few words.

Stats, graphs and points of debate are good and interesting but the real story is in the overcrowded ICU wards. I can only suspect there are other deaths that take place who's only link to covid is the covid guy got the ICU bed first.

[William one eye]

So you are saying Trump should instate inherent emergency powers and force states to comply with reccomended guidelines. This may also require the notion that a transition might not be in the best intrest of public health. Or would you like to wait till january?

[The Lamb]

The death rate will appear almost 'flat' due to the difference in scale of the two metrics.
That said, the death per 1000 infected should drop x amount because of new therapeutics and methods of treatment.

Regardless although there has been improvements in treatments and people give up on the fish tank cleaner and clorox has got to help.
The timeless and proven expression of "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" is certainly apt in this case.
Now ICU's are again filling up to capacity and refrigerated trucks park outside morgue's really tells the full story in very few words.

Stats, graphs and points of debate are good and interesting but the real story is in the overcrowded ICU wards. I can only suspect there are other deaths that take place who's only link to covid is the covid guy got the ICU bed first.

All so true! Just as im sure the people who have or have had it are double what has been tested. Thats why, unlike most, I dont care about the propaganda on any side. I went and got the data myself and ran the numbers. I dont care about how many have it, in fact I love that more people have it because that orange line is flat and that's the death per day line and that means its not as bad as some think. Does it s**k that we even have that line? Of coarse it does! But it hasnt gone up with the rate of infections.

I can only speak for the US since this is US data. So long as that line that is reported everyday on the CDC website stays flat we can talk of morgue trucks, and ICU issues, but the numbers dont lie. Its not fear or bravado, its not feelings or predictions, it is the actual science.

[Stan Rogers]

There are threat colors for probability of terrorist attacks, hurricane and tornado threats so why not covid outbreaks ?
A nation wide lockdown is not viable or does it make any sense in a country as large as the USA. That said, national guidelines would help in relationships to guiding states and counties that are deemed a threat to the best course of action of regional governments.

[The Lamb]

+1 again. No the death rate is flat because its flat. Check it out for yourself. It generally bounces between 700 and 1400 per day with a few outliers with the highest daily death rate back in April when cases were 1/4 what they are now.

But once again, i was less concerned with "outbreaks" and more concerned with the fear mongering of impending doom and how so much of the media speaks of infections rates per day and total deaths and ties them together.

To put it another way, who cares if 7 billion people get a cold? OC43, HKU1, 229E, and NL63 are coronaviruses that cause the common cold. But they dont kill ya. If we had a covid outbreak that was now killing 20% of the people who catch it...LOCK IT DOWN lol.

But as we get more positive cases and that silly little orange line stays flat, the better everyone will be.

BTW, the CDC says the mortality rate for 0-19 years ols is <.01%... not 1% but .01. Thats less than 100th of 1%. Back to school boys and girls

[Stan Rogers]

I think the death rate is also on a scale with elderly being the highest and I should really check but I think that number is over 3% and as the age drops, so does the death rate to less than .01% in healthy teens and young adults. Its when junior inadvertently gives it to Grandma that concerns are raised.

As you previously mentioned, the testing is no where indicative to the actual infection rate. If it is consistent, it can give a semi accurate estimate of the total infection rate. It could guide towns, cities, states to take the necessary measures to help slow the spread.
I think though when you get a doubling of cases, you are going to see a doubling of deaths as well. Our death rates went down as cases climbed but it was primarily teens/young adults who were ignoring the guidelines.

I do not think this 2nd wave is primarily the teens this round.

So, that means they may or may not be immune for an indeterminate length of time. They say you never get the same cold twice but the damn thing mutates from one year to the next so we constantly are fighting it and a vaccine is really much less effective as the golden fleece.
What if the covid 19 takes on those characteristics of the cold ? I think its in the realm of possibility

[The Lamb]

Exactly! The best i can figure out for the April increase which is really elevated is elderly home issues some of our larges cities had.