[No Bug] Suspected Mindbar % Chance Bug

by **Captain dungeness** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:43 pm

I asked the question about Mindbar because I believe there is a problem with the % chance and it's not what you would think.

I recently had the pleasure of removing a Mindbar from a pirate and it was rather ridiculous. I spent more than 10 serenities and 4 purifies and only 1 went through but was blocked by countercurse. A guildmate had also cast 6 or so purifies and none of them went through.

Before you start says "Captain D, that's how a random chance works..." I KNOW! Believe me, I know statistics and probability. This is what I'm saying: I believe the way I cast the curses affected the results. Since it was only minutes before the hour I cast the serenities quickly by casting one, then when it failed, hitting the back button on the browser and then casting another one immediately. I believe I cast the curses too quickly and got the result of the previous roll for more than 1 cast.

Here is why I think that: Many of you found out that you could get multiple of the same voodoo card from the daily presents by clicking all 3 links as fast as possible. I was able to get 2 or 3 of the same card if I had quick timing. It seemed like the server had decided all present requests for that second or 3 seconds would all result in the same card. I don't have good proof that this may be happening with serenity but I would like to hear from the devs that each roll is, in fact, entirely isolated and it doesn't depend on how I use the back button or cast super quickly. I calculated that I was so unlucky as to have been the 1 chance in 315 to have failed so many casts. Of course I could have simply been that unlucky but I have seen other bugs that affected % chances.

-Captain D

PS. I have removed Mindbars before in the BoRed battle and was able to remove about 3 of them with less than 15 serenities. In that fight I cast them much more slowly.

by **Captain Jack** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:00 pm

We don't use a controlled chance system where you will get a guaranteed 75%. We use a dice.
It is a 100-sided dice. If you get a value of 76 or more, then it passes mindbar. If not, it is blocked. Try with a 10sided dice on your own to see how much result can fluctuate.

Regarding timing, I don't think that there can be valid grounds in this discussion. A simple processor has 2m~3m cycles per second, cycles affect result and each calculation happens on a different cycle. So no faster how fast one will click a link, the randomizer won't be really affected.

With a card number of 60, you got 1 out of 60 chances to get the same card again. It is beatable. With the new patch of voodoo cards, these chances will get thinner and I think you will start noticing such more rarely.

For further reading, here is what to read: http://www.math.sci.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/~ ... T/emt.html

by **Captain dungeness** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:36 pm

I think I understand what you are saying about processor speed but I know for sure that I was able to affect the card I could get from the presents by clicking quickly.... how was I able to do that on the Presents page? and is it confirmed that the same is not the case for Mindbar?

I have studied probability and payed with it a bit and I know how it can be very unpredictable- I just thought I would ask.

-Captain D

by **Captain Jack** » Sat Jun 15, 2013 2:30 pm

Here, you can try our function, to ease your concerns:
http://s2.piratesglory.com/dice.php

It uses the exact same dice as mindbar.
Presents work a bit differently, but again time is not a way to affect it.

by **Captain dungeness** » Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:54 pm

HAHAHA!

Captain Jack, I opened that link and IMMEDIATELY rolled a 1!
It tells me "It's official! This ain't your day! You can't get any worser than this!!!"

I guess it's official- I'm simply having a SUPER bad-luck week!

Thank you very much for clarifying.
-Captain D

by **Lefty** » Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:57 pm

Your result is: 49

I can see Pirates overwhelming you shortly!

My usual rate of success is about that

by **Briar** » Sat Jun 15, 2013 10:13 pm

Your result is: 23
Bad effort! You must be drunk!

It knows :shock:

by **Captain Jack** » Sat Jun 15, 2013 10:34 pm

Captain dungeness wrote:HAHAHA!

Captain Jack, I opened that link and IMMEDIATELY rolled a 1!
It tells me "It's official! This ain't your day! You can't get any worser than this!!!"

I guess it's official- I'm simply having a SUPER bad-luck week!

Thank you very much for clarifying.
-Captain D